Comments on: PECOTA said this might happen http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2006/05/pecota-said-this-might-happen/ News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball Fri, 10 Feb 2012 20:06:14 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Kyle J http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2006/05/pecota-said-this-might-happen/#comment-3537 Kyle J Fri, 19 May 2006 16:00:31 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2006/05/pecota-said-this-might-happen/#comment-3537 Since we've hit that magic 40-game mark at which we're allowed to talk about how good the team might be . . . I was curious as to how their amazing start has positioned the Tigers in terms of making the playoffs. At this point, I think 96 games is a reasonable target for making the playoffs. Over the last three years, the Red Sox have earned the AL Wild Card spot with win totals of 95, 98, and 95. And Baseball Prospectus is currently projecting the Red Sox to win 95.4 games this year (using the PECOTA-adjusted stats; Tigers are projected at 98.4 wins). For the Tigers to hit 96 wins, they'd need to go 69-53 from here on out. That's a winning percentage of .566--a 92-win season over 162 games. So there's still a long way to go, but I think we're within our rights to be excited about the position the Tigers have put themselves in. Since we’ve hit that magic 40-game mark at which we’re allowed to talk about how good the team might be . . .

I was curious as to how their amazing start has positioned the Tigers in terms of making the playoffs. At this point, I think 96 games is a reasonable target for making the playoffs. Over the last three years, the Red Sox have earned the AL Wild Card spot with win totals of 95, 98, and 95. And Baseball Prospectus is currently projecting the Red Sox to win 95.4 games this year (using the PECOTA-adjusted stats; Tigers are projected at 98.4 wins).

For the Tigers to hit 96 wins, they’d need to go 69-53 from here on out. That’s a winning percentage of .566–a 92-win season over 162 games.

So there’s still a long way to go, but I think we’re within our rights to be excited about the position the Tigers have put themselves in.

]]> By: Kyle J http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2006/05/pecota-said-this-might-happen/#comment-3435 Kyle J Fri, 19 May 2006 13:27:49 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2006/05/pecota-said-this-might-happen/#comment-3435 Great analysis. There were clearly signs of the trend toward an improved pitching staff--but that magnitude of the change is what's so astounding. The Tigers have allowed 23% fewer runs than the second stingiest team (Yankees) in the AL. Great analysis. There were clearly signs of the trend toward an improved pitching staff–but that magnitude of the change is what’s so astounding. The Tigers have allowed 23% fewer runs than the second stingiest team (Yankees) in the AL.

]]> By: Joey http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2006/05/pecota-said-this-might-happen/#comment-3337 Joey Fri, 19 May 2006 04:31:27 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2006/05/pecota-said-this-might-happen/#comment-3337 Just one question, who is the best team in baseball right now?! Yeah baby!!! Just one question, who is the best team in baseball right now?! Yeah baby!!!

]]> By: Jeff M http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2006/05/pecota-said-this-might-happen/#comment-3333 Jeff M Fri, 19 May 2006 02:33:53 +0000 http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2006/05/pecota-said-this-might-happen/#comment-3333 No point in allowing comments for this thread. You nailed it. :) No point in allowing comments for this thread. You nailed it. :)

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