Cautious Optimism Abounds

Woke up this mornin’ feelin’ fine
There’s somethin’ special on my mind
Last night I met a new girl in the neighbourhood, whoa yeah
Somethin’ tells me I’m into something good
(Somethin’ tells me I’m into somethin’)

This whole “Detroit Tigers are winning” thing is new to a lot of us. We’re experiencing things we haven’t felt in a long time, and it’s all very confusing.

We’re doing things like checking on out of town scores, and not to see how our fantasy players are faring. We want to know if the White Sox are losing, and if other teams are keeping pace.

We’re seeing power rankings and finding our beloved Tigers in the top 10, or sometimes just on top. Actually the fact that we’re even looking at power rankings is somewhat bizarre.

We’re seeing the Olde English D logo being prominently displayed on Baseball Tonight, and we’ve yet to play the Yankees or Red Sox.

These are all signs that your team is relevant, something that hasn’t happened in Detroit for a very long time. The good news is that this is okay.

People are getting excited, but they are afraid to admit it. Everyone is waiting for the shoe (or Carlos Guillen) to drop. And we all know that some day a starter will get knocked out early, or that a closer will blow a save. Everybody is anxiously awaiting that magical moment when they can say this team is for real. Nobody wants to be let down, and they certainly don’t want to jinx the team.

People point to the schedule and say, they haven’t really faced anybody, and the few games they played against good teams didn’t turn out that well. Yes, the White Sox sweep was a downer, but those weren’t blow out games. They also managed a split with the Indians which I don’t view as poor. As for the Angels, those were on the road and the last 3 games of a 9 game west coast trip. And those are the sum total of the series that they didn’t win this year.

Meanwhile, the Tigers took 3 of 4 from the Rangers, who are actually doing pretty good. They are the only AL West team to outscore thier opponents, and they have a .609 winning percentage against teams that aren’t the Tigers.

Yes, the Tigers have played some bad teams and teams playing badly. But even those bad teams will win 50 games this year. Those wins have to come at some time, and so far they haven’t come against the Tigers.

And even if the Tigers haven’t played the toughest schedule, wins are wins. This isn’t the NCAA tournament or Bowl Championship Series where Detroit needs to worry about RPI or SOS. They are piling up wins, and they don’t have to give them back.

Now we all know about the Baltimore Orioles who started out very hot last year, and finished very poorly. We know that from August 11, 2000 through September 5th, 2000 the Tigers went 19-9 and yet still finished with a 79-83 record.

But go ahead, get excited. Enjoy what this team is doing. Embrace that feeling that with each game you expect the Tigers to win. We don’t know if the Tigers will keep winning, but they’re winning now. We don’t know if this team is a contender, but we know they are contending now. Enjoy it as long as it lasts. We’ll figure out if it’s for real later.

14 thoughts on “Cautious Optimism Abounds”

  1. White Sox come back to win in the 11th so we don’t move into first place. But we’re tied (at this moment, at least) for the second best record in all of MLB. And we have a 3 1/2 game lead on every AL team outside Chicago.

    I am afraid to admit how excited I am. But the season has clearly started as well as it possibly could have. None of us could have dreamed we’d be in this position nearly 30 games into the season.

    Go Tigers!

  2. Great post Billfer. I do think we’re all having a hard time processing this and the recommendation to just enjoy it as it unfolds is the right prescription.

  3. I hate to be a downer, but this time last year the Orioles were 18-9. I love the start, but I’ve been burnt before by a hot start.

  4. Did you guys notice how angry Weaver was getting last night when the calls weren’t going his way? His performance seemed to suffer once he lost his cool and the ump certainly wasn’t about to help him out considering the bad attitude. I remember this being a problem when he was pitching for us.

    That being said, once again the umpiring in this game was terrible. That Country Joe–or whatever Rod and Mario were calling him–might be the worst home plate ump I’ve seen all year. I’m thankful he ended up hurting the opponent more than us, but it sure is frustrating to watch such inconsistent pitch calling.

  5. Did you guys notice how angry Weaver was getting last night when the calls weren

  6. Tony is right about being cautious. Look at the Cincinnati Reds right now. Still, I have a good feeling about the Tigers. I said at the beginning of the season that they needed two things to happen this year. They needed to stay healthy and they needed the young pitchers to break though. So far those things are happening with no sign of letting up soon.

  7. this hot start is legit.

    Pythag can’t tell you if a team is capable of sustaining their production. It can only show you whether or not their production justifies their record.

    As a point of curiousity, does anyone know what Baltimore’s pythag was at the end of their hot start?

  8. The bottom line is that this start is as good as we could possibly have expected. If we’re not allowed to get excited about this, we’re not allowed to get excited about anything.

    Statistical question: Intuitively, I would think that a hot start based on good pitching would be more likely to hold up than a hot start based on hitting. (The Tigers have hit relatively well, but the pitching has been phenomenal.) I wonder if this is really true.

  9. Being a loyal Tiger fan in Portland OR (there aren’t many of us) I get asked all the time now. “whats up with your Tigers!?” I just smile and enjoy it. Its much better than “man, your Tigers aren’t doing so hot this year.”

    And now I can hate the White Sox for every game they win, not just for being jerks with most annoying announcers ever!

  10. Here, here! to everything that’s been said, but most of all to the fact that the White Sox have the most annoying announcers ever. I had to suffer through their nonsense for four years while living two blocks away from the Cell. Back then the Tigers would always come in and sweep the White Sox, even though Detroit was the worst team in the division. Consistently beating Detroit is what got Chicago over the hump last season. (Yes, I really believe that without Detroit, Chicago wouldn’t have won the World Series last year. It was in Detroit where they clinched their playoff spot and began their incredible 16-1 streak, 11 of those wins coming in the playoffs.)

    And to the people who mentioned Baltimore’s false start last year… A lot of us thought that Chicago’s fast start was also a fluke, but they carried that momentum for an entire season and into this one. Many analysts were honestly projecting the White Sox to finish 3rd or even 4th last year. At this time last year they were 20-7.

  11. I couldn’t help but nod my head in agreement as I read your post. I have grown up a loyal Tigers fan despite never knowing many winning seasons (I was 2 yrs old when they won their last WS). The way things are going now I could honestly see the Tigers as a WC contender come August.

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