Comments on: Breaking down Bonderman

By: The Detroit Tiger Weblog » Blog Archive » Game 26: Royals at Tigers

The Detroit Tiger Weblog » Blog Archive » Game 26: Royals at Tigers — Tue, 02 May 2006 09:10:59 +0000

[...] PREGAME: The Kansas City Royals come to town for a short two game series. Jeremy Bonderman will try to keep the string of strong outings alive for the Tigers. Bonderman, whose 5.04 ERA probably isn’t indicative of how well he’s pitched, has only really struggled against Matt Stairs (5 for 11, 2 homers). [...]

By: Mike F

Mike F — Fri, 28 Apr 2006 23:06:20 +0000

NOTE TO SELF: Double check posts twice after long days at work.

I meant Robertson not Robinson.

By: Jeff M

Jeff M — Fri, 28 Apr 2006 12:45:22 +0000

I haven

By: billfer

billfer — Fri, 28 Apr 2006 02:10:18 +0000

You guys raise a bunch of great points.

RE: the first inning – it seems, and I haven’t researched this, that many of the best pitchers seem to have the toughest time with the first inning. Basically, that is a team’s chance to get them. If they get out of the first they can often times cruise. I’m not saying that Bonderman is on par with the game’s best, it’s just something I’ve noticed.

And Mike, I think you raise a very real possibility.

By: Mike F

Mike F — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 23:49:36 +0000

Could it be that Bonderman is guilty of trying to be perfect when he’s in trouble, just like Leyland was saying about Robinson. Instead of trying to let the batter hit the ball (to the infield hopefully), he’s bearing down for the strikeout but also serving up something that the batter can hit for a homer.

In the home opener, the runs the Sox scored were on homers with runners on. I think his other HR allowed were also with runners on.

By: Kyle J

Kyle J — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 20:58:33 +0000

So far this year, the RA for the entire league in the first innning is 5.97. The RA for starters in all other innings is 5.09. So Jeff’s theory seems to have some validity. Bonderman’s discrepancy has been much larger than this, though. The rate is over twice as high for the first inning than for the remaining innings.

So far this season, Bonderman’s first inning RA of 9.00 is a function of giving up 2 runs in the first inning against Cleveland and 3 runs in the first inning against Oakland. In the Cleveland game, he gave up 4 more runs. In the Oakland game, he didn’t give up any additional runs.

So he gave up runs in the first inning in 2 of his 5 starts. I’ll try to check the breakdown of his 2005 starts when I have the time.

By: Paul

Paul — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 20:56:37 +0000

Jeff, I was recently looking at Bonderman’s numbers with regards to his first inning struggles and I don’t think you need to compare it to league averages to assert that he struggles early. The first inning is definitely the toughest, but Bonderman noticeably struggles with it.

By: Jeff M

Jeff M — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 19:35:21 +0000

Kyle,

You’d have to compare those numbers to the league averages. It would only take a couple really bad days to skew the 1st inning stats. When a pitcher just flat out doesn’t have it on a given day, he won’t make it out of the first couple innings, so his later inning numbers will likely look better.

I would bet that the league average for starters in the 9th inning is far better than the league average for starters in the 1st inning, simply because they don’t make it to the 9th unless they have their A game.

This is purely speculation though. Hopefully, someone has numbers to back me up.

By: Kyle J

Kyle J — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 18:50:47 +0000

Answers to my own questions:

2005 Stats: 1st inning / Remainder of game

IP: 29 / 160
RA: 10.55 / 3.77
H/9: 14.6 / 8.55
HR/9: 1.9 / 0.8
BB/9: 3.4 / 2.6
K/9: 8.1 / 6.7

2006 Stats: 1st inning / Remainder of game

IP: 5 / 25.1
RA: 9.00 / 4.26
H/9: 14.4 / 6.1
HR/9: 1.8 / 0.7
BB/9: 0.0 / 3.2
K/9: 12.6 / 4.3

Definitely something goin on here. 2006 breakdown is looking an awfully lot like the 2005 breakdown. He’s giving up a lot more hits and and runs in the first inning, but actually striking out more people, too. Any theories to explain this?

By: Lee Panas

Lee Panas — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 18:29:12 +0000

Bonderman has had a PERA (and FIP too I think) significantly lower than his ERA for three straight years. I don’t know whether this is bad luck or whether there is something else going on.

Lee

By: Kyle J

Kyle J — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 18:07:48 +0000

Interesting stats on Bonderman. I was thinking the other day that Bonderman seems to have a tendency to give up some runs in the 1st inning but shut down the opposing lineup the rest of the way. Would be interesting to look at his performance by inning this season and last. Not sure what the pracitical reason for this trend is (if it actually exists).

By: Rodney Craig

Rodney Craig — Thu, 27 Apr 2006 13:13:27 +0000

Interesting point that stats back up Bonderman’s problems with men on base. As a fan, this is my preception also, if he can get into a groove he’s outstanding, if he gets people on base they will often score.

You put out some ideas that I didn’t think of, especially the notion that arm problems are forcing him to struggle in the strech. My observance is he gets frustrated way to easy. His expressions and allowance of emotions to overcome his concentration have not gotten better with experience.

I think the next few starts will be very telling, he’s pitched well in his last couple outings, hopefully that trend will continue.