Monthly Archives: October 2005

2005 Season, Offense, Statistics

A Model of Inefficiency

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It was a familiar scene for Tiger fans this season. A runner gets to third base with less than two outs. The next batter would invariably seem to do one of three things, a strikeout, a sharp ground ball to third, or a pop out to second. Once that second out was secured, the final out would be a fairly deep fly ball that would have been quite useful one out before. The Tigers seemed to have an uncanny ability to ruin great scoring opportunities in 2005. But was this really the case, or did it just seem that way?

The first thing I did was to take a look at the teams performance with RISP. The Tigers batting average with RISP was a very respectable .273 which was good enough for 6th in the American League. The problem was despite a decent average, the OBP in the same situation was a dismal .335 which was next to worst. Now I won’t go all sabremetric and say that a walk is as good as a hit in these situations. Clearly, a hit is more likely to score a runner than a walk is. However, I think everyone would agree that not making an out, and having an additional runner get on only increases your scoring potential. The other problem is that the nature of outs the Tigers were making wasn’t conducive to run scoring. The Tigers had the 4th most strikeouts with RISP, despite ranking 11th in plate apperances in that same situation.

So was the Tigers biggest problem getting runners on to drive in, or were they especially inefficient at it as well? Below is a table showing TBW (Total Bases + Walks) and REA (Run Efficiency Average). TBW is essentially a summation of a team’s offensive events. REA is simply runs divided by TBW – which gives an indication of how effectively teams cashed in on their offensive events. For more information on TBW and REA, please check out this article by Tom Tippett.

While the Tigers are middle of the pack in TBW, they are near the bottom in terms of efficiency. Next I wondered what the impact of home runs would be on this measure. Afterall, the Tigers play in a park that discourages homers especially for right handed hitters (of which the lineup was heavily tilted towards). Plus, while a run scoring from a home run still counts (as do the runs on base) I was more interested in seeing the teams ability to get the runners they have home.

I modified REA (I call it REA-2) to take out the home runs. By “take out” I removed the homers from the TBW total (or 4 TBWs for every homer) and I subtracted the home runs from the run total as well.

According to REA-2, Detroit is the least capable of getting their baserunners home. Now I don’t know if this means anything, because I just made up REA-2, but it seems to make some sense (feel free to poke holes in it). It serves to further highlight that the Tigers were very inefficient.

So why were they so inefficient? My guess is that it was a combination of their poor on base percentage (or the ability to make outs) short circuiting rallies, a lack of team speed, an abnormally high strike out rate given the team’s other offensive characteristics, and possibly some bad luck. This team managed to combine several attributes that when isloated aren’t necessarily a bad thing. Unfortunately they weren’t isolated. They were a slow team that didn’t hit for a ton of power. They relied on the home run in a park that discourages it. They don’t take walks, and they don’t make contact. The result is an offense that was capable of great things some of the time, but struggled more than their share.

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Coaching staff almost set

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The Free Press today indicates that the coaching staff is set – with the exception of pitching coach. The article focuses mostly on Andy Van Slyke as outfield coach. The rest of the staff, as has been speculated is:
Gene Lamont – Bench coach & 3rd base
Lloyd McClendon – Bullpen
Rafael Belliard – Infield Coach
Don Slaught – Hitting Coach

Leyland has brought together some guys with considerable coaching/managing experience, as well as some first timers. I like seeing McClendon on the staff, because similar to Trammell, I’d like to see what he could do with some talent.

As for pitching coach, there were reports that the Tigers offered Larry Rothschild a 3 year contract. It sounds as if Rothschild is debating the Tigers offer, or a one year offer to return to the Cubs. But in today’s Freep story, it doesn’t sound like the Tigers are close to naming a pitching coach at all.

“We really have no answers on how it will turn out,” Leyland said. “We probably will not pick a pitching coach for a while yet. We have some other names on the list.”

Leyland reiterated that he will take as much time as necessary to find the right pitching coach. Rothschild was Leyland’s pitching coach on the 1997 world-champion Marlins.

Site Updates
I’m working on updating this site, and so you may see some changes. I don’t know if I’ll do an entire overhaul or not. What I have done so far is add Google Search to replace Atomz. The search box is poorly located at the very bottom of the page, but I’ll be working to find it a new home. I’ve also added this site to Feedburner, so in the sidebar you can now easily subscribe to the newsreader of your choice. And last, and most importantly, I’ve finally switched to individual pages for posts. I think all the images and links within this site should work. But if something isn’t working for you, please let me know.

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The Rothschild Files

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According to John Lowe, the Tigers have asked for permission to interview Larry Rothschild for pitching coach. Rothschild has been the pitching coach for the Chicago Cubs for the last 4 seasons. And let’s look at his track record.

During that time the Cubs have lost Kerry Wood and Mark Prior for a significant amount of time due to inury. In 2005, Cubs pitchers Carlos Zambrano and Mark Prior ranked 2nd and 3rd in all of baseball in pitcher abuse points. Prior and Zambrano combined had 8 outings in which they threw more than 122 pitches. Zambrano has been in the top 10 in pitcher abuse points each of the last 3 years – he’s 25 years old. Prior was 4th in the league in PAP in 2003, as a rookie.

I don’t know if this is Rothschild’s fault or Dusty Baker’s, but considering the Tigers are trying to build a young pitching staff, this stuff scares me. Especially combined with Jim Leyland’s use of young pitchers in 1998. But in all fairness, Mark Prior thinks highly enough of him that he would like Rothschild back next year.

Also, in an interview with Baseball Prospectus, pitching mechanics guru Tom House had this to say when asked about the best pitching coaches in the game:

(Larry) Rothschild is in the middle of new- and old-school, and gives a bit of the best of both worlds. Some of these guys just get more publicity than others, but there are more good ones now than there have been in the past.

Other information I found about Rothschild is that he is a proponent of the change-up, much like Bob Cluck. It was something he stressed heavily during a managing stint in Tampa.

It’s nice to see some positive comments. However, given that the Tigers are staking a large part of our hopes to Bonderman/Verlander/Zumaya, I still find myself apprehensive.

Other Stuff
-David Espinosa is off to a strong start in the Arizona Fall League. In his first two games he’s gone 5 for 9 with 3 doubles and a stolen base. Other Tigers in the AFL are Don Kelly (0 for 4), Kody Kirkland (no action), Mark Woodyard, Adam Peterson (allowed 2 homers in 1 1/3), and Humberto Sanchez.

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Manager Carousel Wrap-up

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My thoughts, for what they’re worth on the events of the last two days…

On Jim Leyland and the press conference
I have to say that I was impressed with Leyland’s answers at the press conference. I liked his very frank honesty. Although I don’t believe that he doesn’t know much about the club he’s taking over. For someone that was preaching preparation, I have a hard time believing he doesn’t know what he’s getting into. Either through the media relations staff, Dave Dombrowski, or his own preparation, he knew what questions would be coming, and he was prepared with answers.

Will he be a good fit for the Tigers? Probably. One of my biggest concerns with Leyland was the fact he quit his last job – six years ago. He addressed that right away, and was very frank about it. It remains to be seen if the same thing will happen again, but for now I’ll take his answer at face value.

My other concern is how he handled his young pitching staff in Florida. That wasn’t addressed in the press conference, and remains a major concern given the age of the Tiger rotation next year. Especially given the fact that both Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya will probably be called on to contribute in some way. As for how he handled the rotation in Colorado, it is hard to say. For one thing it was Colorado, and normal rules for judging pitcher abuse probably don’t apply. And another thing, his rotation was comprised of guys in their late 20’s and early 30’s as opposed to tender 23 year old arms.

It will be interesting to see how much influence the front office has in pitcher usage, and who Leyland tabs as his pitching coach.

On the process
I’m actually not that upset with the way things went down. It’s pretty clear that Dombrowski wasn’t looking to hire a new manager, he was looking to hire Leyland. Whether or not that is the right move remains to be seen, but if Dombrowski was getting the guy he wanted then why wait? With that being the case it doesn’t bother me that the process moved so quickly. It does make you wonder though, as Luke commented, if Leyland wasn’t available would Trammell still be manager?

As for cursory interviews of Juan Samuel and Bruce Fields, I have to believe that they were fully aware of the situation. Hopefully the Tigers will make room for them within the organization in exchange for their loyalty.

On Trammell
For many long term fans of the Tigers, this move hurts. As fans we typically cheer for the uniform more than the individual. In Trammell’s case he was the uniform. His years of service to the organization, always executed with class and professionalism, became what we wanted the English D to represent. He defined the uniform as much, if not more, than the uniform defined our admiration for him. Because of that, it is hard not to feel a little bit empty when you realize that Trammell will never wear that uniform again.

I encourage you to read this passionate and well thought out comment by Cameron

2005 Season, Uncategorized

2005 in Review – Runs Created

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I have a number of posts planned to take a look at the 2005 season. The first of which is a look at runs created by position.

I apologize for the size of the table below, but I wanted to take at how productive each position was this year compared to last year. I also wanted show who was producing what. The 2004 season is on the left, and 2005 is on the right.

(EDIT: I’ll try to fix this later, but the table is unreadable when you view it in a browswer because it is too big. If you want to see it, the best bet is to right-click and save it then view the JPG. Sorry about making it so difficult)
(EDIT 2: In my latest attempt to fix it, I uploaded an older version. I’m going to take the table down at this point, and I’ll fix it this evening. Sorry again)
(EDIT 3: OK, I think it’s fixed.)

RC Chart

What becomes readily evident is that the Tigers failed to improve significantly at any position offensively, while experiencing significant declines at catcher, shortstop, and to a lesser extent centerfield.

While declines at shortstop were to be expected, getting 50% of the previous year’s production was a significant drop-off. The decline is of course attributable to Carlos Guillen’s injury, the fact that he probably couldn’t reproduce the previous year, and Omar Infante’s poor play.

Catcher was the other large drop-off. Like with Guillen, expecting Pudge to reproduce the previous season – regardless of the weight loss – wasn’t realistic. However, Pudge’s inability to take a walk, his dip in batting average, and his resulting slugging percentage proved to be a huge hole in the lineup.

I was actually surprised to see that from an offensive perspective, the Tigers got 20 fewer runs from centerfield. I was a huge proponent of letting Alex Sanchez go. Unfortunately, the Ordonez injury forced Nook Logan into the lineup where he consumed 57% of the plate apperances despite poor production. While Curtis Granderson was a very nice addition, he was only in center a quarter of the time.

First base was an interesting position in that despite terrible numbers from Carlos Pena the first two months of the season, the position ended up essentially the same as 2004. Thanks to Pena’s renaissance and Chris Shelton’s emergence the team managed to get acceptable run generation.

Aside from catcher, the position that was most disappointing was right field. While declines were expected at short and catcher, right field was to be the position where the biggest gains would be made. Unfortunately Magglio Ordonez only had half of the PA’s in right. And while his production was decent, it wasn’t at the level that most had hoped for. So rightfield was pretty much the same as 2004, but the Tigers were definitely counting on more production.

When looking at the offense performances from this perspective, it’s hard to see how this team would be expected to win more games than last year. I’ll be taking additional looks at the offense, as well as the defense and pitching in the coming weeks.

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My take on Trammell

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I’ve spent quite a bit of space on this site, and on various message boards defending Alan Trammell. I’ve probably been a little more vigorous in defending him because 1. I wanted him to succeed because of his playing career and the fact he is truly a “good guy” 2. I thought he received way more criticism than he deserved. While some of it was fair, a lot of it was nonsensical.

I found myself disagreeing with his managerial moves on a somewhat regular basis, but I didn’t think the moves were wrong. I could see the reasoning for making the decisions, even if I didn’t agree with them. Sure there were a couple times that I thought were really bad errors in judgement (the Chris Spurling/White Sox incident was probably the worst), but by and large I had a hard time finding instances where he outright cost the team games.

With that in mind, I had a hard time thinking he should be fired. Part of it is because I don’t think that managers in baseball really are that important. I think that in baseball more than other sports, the manager is more dependent on the talent that he is dealt. There is only so much scheming a manager can do to overcome a poor offense or poor pitching.

I don’t buy the argument that the record should be better because the payroll is so high – at least from the standpoint of holding that against Trammell. He didn’t allocate the payroll, and he didn’t put 27% of that payroll on the disabled list.

The second half of the season he was working with a bullpen that was depleted to say the least. I don’t blame the collapse on the Kyle Farnsworth deal because the Tigers traded away their closer. The lack of a closer down the stretch was far from the Tigers biggest problem – but it did significantly diminish the talent available in the late innings.

What was probably his final undoing was the reports out of the clubhouse. Some reports said the lockeroom was hell, while others said it was overblown. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

I think Trammell deserved one more year. I don’t think any manager could have accomplished much more than Trammell did. Dave Dombrowski spoke of “getting to the next level” but I’m not really sure what that means. Is he talking contention or a winning record? Both would have been a stretch given the circumstances this season. That being said, I understand the move. As a Tiger fan part of me is eager to move forward, but part of me is extemely saddened at the same time. Alan Trammell has endured a miserable final month wearing the Olde English D, and yet he’s done it as a true professional with tremendous class and dignity.

Jim Leyland is already in town being interviewed, and an annoucement this week wouldn’t surprise me. Dombrowski has already interviewed Bruce Fields and Juan Samuel for the position – despite stating that he’s looking for a veteran manager. That should alleviate Bud Selig’s concerns about interviewing minorities which should further expedite the process. Whoever the next manager is I wish them the best of luck.

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The High Road

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Here’s a full page ad that is running in today’s Detroit News sports section:

To the greatest sports fans in the world and to a great sports franchise

As to the fans, while I may no longer be a Tiger, I want you all to know that all your support, cheers and good wishes over the years were greatly appreciated and will always be with me. To the Tigers, I thank you for giving me an opportunity to live my dream as a professional ball player. I can’t thank the fans and the organization enough for all your support during my career in Detroit. Thanks and keep the faith

-Bobby Higginson #4

It’s a nice gesture and classy move towards a city that hasn’t treated him so well the last few years. Higginson went from a blue collar fan favorite up through 2000 (Darren McCarty on a baseball field) to a scapegoat for all the teams problems since then.

From the start of his career through the 2000 season, Higginson hit 291/367/489 line with 134 homers. In 1996 he posted an OPS+ of 146 (for those unfamiliar with OPS+ essentially his season was 46% better than average – a significant amount). He followed that up with seasons of OPS+ of 133 and 114 before struggling through an injury plagued season in 1999.

In 2000, which coincided with his free agent contract year, he rebounded for an OPS+ of 132. In the process he hit some of those magical seasonal milestones – .300 batting average, 30 homers, and 100 RBI. Bobby cashed in and signed a 4 year $40 million contract with a no trade clause so he could stay in the Detroit. He built a house in Detroit, and for quite awhile was the only Tiger to live in Detroit year-round.

The story was going perfect. A hard working Detroit athlete that embraced the city looked like he’d finish his career here. The team was coming off a relatively strong season, and were set to take the next step forward – especially after clubhouse cancer Juan Gonzalez was gone. But things didn’t go according to plan.

In 2001 the team regressed to 66 wins, and Higginson’s performance slid to an OPS+ of 116. It was a decent season, but the .277 average, 17 homers and 71 RBI weren’t the All Star numbers that were expected just weren’t there. More tough seasons the next couple years for the team and Higginson left a lot of people frustrated. As the highest paid player on a bad team, Higginson was an easy target. The fact that he was plagued by injuries did nothing to alleviate the criticism. He drew even more ire from the fans when he asked for a trade – but was unwilling to renegotiate his contract to facilitate a move.

The result is that today is the day many fans had circled on their calendars as a day of rejoicing because Higginson’s salary would come off the payroll. Since signing the contract, Higginson has hit 258/345/402 and 53 homers in 513 games.

Higginson’s career is most likely over. He has stated that he’d like to play for a contender, but I’m not sure what contender would want to pick up somebody with Higginson’s production who didn’t really play this season.

So it’s time to close the books on Higginson in Detroit. His career numbers as a Tiger: 272/358/455, 187 homers, 709 RBI, and 123 outfield assists. Higginson brought some of the ire on himself, but his biggest fault was being unable to live up to his contract. While he deserved criticism, he endured way more than he should have had to. It’s just a shame that he will be remembered more for his contract than he will for his contributions to the Tigers.

Good luck Bobby.