Comments on: Run Distribution – with graphs http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2005/07/run-distribution-with-graphsphp/ News, views, and analysis on the Detroit Tigers and baseball Fri, 10 Feb 2012 20:06:14 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 By: Jeff M http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2005/07/run-distribution-with-graphsphp/#comment-937 Jeff M Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000 http://test.detroittigersweblog.com/2005/07/08/run-distribution-with-graphs.php/#comment-937 What were the total number of games where we allowed 8+ runs? If that's 5% below league average, that would explain why the pitching expectation isn't matched. I can easily believe that our pitching has kept us from getting blown out at the league average rate while our offense has had blowouts at the league average rate. What were the total number of games where we allowed 8+ runs? If that’s 5% below league average, that would explain why the pitching expectation isn’t matched. I can easily believe that our pitching has kept us from getting blown out at the league average rate while our offense has had blowouts at the league average rate.

]]> By: billfer http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2005/07/run-distribution-with-graphsphp/#comment-938 billfer Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000 http://test.detroittigersweblog.com/2005/07/08/run-distribution-with-graphs.php/#comment-938 You may be onto something. The Tigers allowed 8+ in 8.5% of games against a league rate of 11.5%. <br> <br>As for the offense, they're getting 8+ at the same rate that the defense/pitching is allowing them - 8.5% You may be onto something. The Tigers allowed 8+ in 8.5% of games against a league rate of 11.5%.

As for the offense, they’re getting 8+ at the same rate that the defense/pitching is allowing them – 8.5%

]]> By: Jeff M http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2005/07/run-distribution-with-graphsphp/#comment-939 Jeff M Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000 http://test.detroittigersweblog.com/2005/07/08/run-distribution-with-graphs.php/#comment-939 Hmmm, That doesn't explain how the offensive numbers accurately predicted 39 wins. If the pythag is 41-41 that means our runs scored and allowed are very close, if not equal, right? <br> <br>So if we're below league average on our number of blowouts produced, that would mean our distribution of runs is tighter than average which these theories say is a good thing. <br> <br>By that logic, shouldn't we have overachieved the offensive prediction by the same margin that we underachieved the defensive prediction? <br> <br>Maybe the 7 run games hold the answer to that? <br>Maybe I'm just thinking too much.... <br> <br>Great stats though. I've never looked at it from this perspective. It really reveals the only hole in the pythag theory (it's easy underachieve by increasing the run distribution) Hmmm, That doesn’t explain how the offensive numbers accurately predicted 39 wins. If the pythag is 41-41 that means our runs scored and allowed are very close, if not equal, right?

So if we’re below league average on our number of blowouts produced, that would mean our distribution of runs is tighter than average which these theories say is a good thing.

By that logic, shouldn’t we have overachieved the offensive prediction by the same margin that we underachieved the defensive prediction?

Maybe the 7 run games hold the answer to that?

Maybe I’m just thinking too much….

Great stats though. I’ve never looked at it from this perspective. It really reveals the only hole in the pythag theory (it’s easy underachieve by increasing the run distribution)

]]> By: Jeff M http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2005/07/run-distribution-with-graphsphp/#comment-940 Jeff M Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000 http://test.detroittigersweblog.com/2005/07/08/run-distribution-with-graphs.php/#comment-940 Actually, it's probably the 3- games that hold the answer, isn't it? Actually, it’s probably the 3- games that hold the answer, isn’t it?

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