Missing in Action

Like the Tiger offense, I was missing in action this weekend. I went up north which meant no TV coverage. While there was something nostalgic about sitting outside listening to the game on the radio, it also makes it difficult for me to comment effectively. Afterall, the last game I saw involved me and the boy taking in a Friday night beating by the good guys. I’ll try to catch up and be concise (yeah right).

Justin Verlander
The debut was probably a success overall. He definitely battled first inning adrenaline, and he couldn’t find his curveball. That said, he recovered very well and I don’t see there being any long lasting negative effects from the 3 run first inning. He ran out of gas in the sixth inning, but considering the amount of energy he expended in the first inning combined with his age that wasn’t unexpected.

No Offense
With the exception of the 10 run demolition on Friday, the Tigers offense continues to underwhelm. They were shutout on consecutive days and continued to struggle to score relevant runs. Unfortunately I don’t have any explanation, and there isn’t much that can be said that hasn’t already been said.

Against Wang on Sunday, at least it sounded like the team was hitting balls hard, but had nothing to show for it. I’m not going to make excuses, and just state my perception here: the Tigers were hurt by Comerica Park during the homestand. I don’t blame the ballpark in general because both teams have to play in it. The Tigers in general have been helped watching opponents fly balls die in its recesses as often as they’ve been hurt by their own. However, during this homestand the Tigers seemed especially proficient in finding the warning track – moreso than their opponents. It’s still no excuse for not scoring runners from third, but it is my view that the Tigers hit the ball better on the homestand than their runs scored would indicate.

Now during the doubleheader the offense was just pathetic. It wasn’t a matter of the park, or spectacular pitching. They were just bad. Bad approaches, bad results, and no excuses.

Tram on the hot seat
Like it or not, Trammell’s job may be in jeopardy right now. I’m not calling for his head, but if he wants a stay of execution, the Tigers must post a winning record over their next 10 games. They have two more against the Indians, and 4 against both the Devil Rays and Royals.

As I’ve stated before, I don’t feel that Trammell is that bad of a manager. I don’t agree with everything he does, but I also don’t think he is hurting the team. As much blame as he gets for the offense underperforming, he should get equal credit for the pitching staff overperforming.

As for him getting guys fired up, or yelling more, I don’t really see that as an issue. The Tigers have a number of veterans that shouldn’t need to be motivated. As for the situational hitting, the hitters know what they need to do in certain situations – they just aren’t executing. As manager, he bears the brunt of the responsiblity whether or not he has the ability to effect changes.

I don’t want Trammell gone, but if things don’t get better soon he might take the fall.

Kevin Hooper
To make room for Justin Verlander, the Tigers DFA’d Jason Smith for the second time this season. Once Verlander was optioned back to Toledo, the Tigers recalled Kevin Hooper. Hooper is a 28 year old career minor leaguer. He has a career 347 OBP which is okay, but only a 341 slugging percentage. This year he was hitting an uninspiring 246/283/313 for Toledo this season.

Gibby not enthused about switch

According to this report Kirk Gibson doesn’t sound too enthused about the switch from bench coach to hitting coach.

I’m not sure that I like the move either. While I can definitely see Bruce Fields as a bench coach, I’m not sure I can see Gibson instructing hitters.

Now not being around the hitters or clubhouse, I’m really not qualified to comment on the respective coaches ability, but this is my perception. Fields was a capable hitting instructor in that he could recognize flaws in swings and approaches and communicate those to the players. But at this point, they just weren’t responding. Approaches weren’t changing, nor were swings (see Infante with his bat pointed toward the infield at the beginning of his swing). There are some players who seem to really respond to Fields, such as Craig Monroe, who will probably still go to Fields for advice.

As for Gibson taking over the role, there are some elements of his teaching that I’ll probably like. For example, as an analyst, when guys got in hitters counts (2-0, 3-1), he’d advocate looking for a specific pitch. It wasn’t a matter of swing if it’s a strike, it was swing if its a pitch you can hammer. As for his ability to break down and analyze a swing, I just don’t know.

From the bench coach perspective, Fields has managerial experience and actually seems like a natural fit.

Clutching Hitting

The Tigers began what is arguably their biggest homestand in several years by being swept in agonizing fashion. Most glaring was the Tigers inablity to get runners home, even in terrific scoring situations. The series once again sparked debate about the Tigers lack of clutch hitting. I’ve countered this in the past by highlighting that the Tigers acutally hit better with RISP than the league average (even after this series it is 280 vers 275 for the league). But one of the problems when talking about clutch hitting is defining what constitutes clutch.

For example, one would think that Pudge’s triple leading off the 9th would be considered a clutch hit. Or any of the pile of hits the Tigers accumulated during the 13 inning game could be considered clutch because they kicked off, or kept alive potential rallies in a close game. In any case, let’s try looking at the Tigers ability to generate runs in scoring situations.

Using the splits at ESPN.com, I compiled the following table of performance with runners in scoring position. I show the Tigers performance in each measure, the league average, and where the Tigers rank.

So the Tigers are nearly average in opportunities with RISP, yet they convert (runs/PA) at a pretty low rate. (Note: I know that the conversion rate is probably influenced by the type of situations. A PA with a runner on second and two outs is weighted the same as bases loaded and nobody out. However, I didn’t have that level of detail available. And even if I did, shouldn’t the better offenses get credit for getting themselves in better situations?) Why is this? Their batting average is better than average, and their OBP is right at the league average. So they’re not making more outs than other teams.

They are however getting fewer extrabase hits than other teams. But they aren’t significantly lower, and the values aren’t park adjusted so the impact probably isn’t all on slugging. But if we keep looking, you’ll see one of the Tigers problems that I’ve highlighted before. They are striking out way too much, especially considering the lack of power.

The story however, gets worse for the Tigers when the bases are loaded. In 70 plate appearances the Tigers have only converted that into 41 runs. The batting average is 217, and that’s even a weak .217. The Tigers have only mustered 3 extrabase hits in that situation. Meanwhile, they have struck out 18 times in those 70 PAs. State differently, the Tigers have failed to put the ball in play in out of every 4 bases loaded opportunities.

The Tigers aren’t as bad as they showed in this series. However, their strikeout rate and below average slugging percentage still continue to haunt this team.

First Pitch Swinging
While it may seem odd to pick on the Tiger with the longest hitting streak, Craig Monroe wasn’t exactly working the count during this series. Earlier in the year, I praised Monroe for his plate discipline. And while I don’t know how many pitches he swung at out of the strike zone this series, I do know that in 14 plate apperances in this series he swung at the first pitch 11 times. Right now Monroe has a streak of 8 consecutive times up that he hacked at the first pitch.

I’m not against swinging at the first pitch. There are times to recognize that pitchers are throwing first pitch fastballs, and try and capitalize on that. But 8 times in a row?

Monroe wasn’t alone with some questionable approachs at the plate, I just don’t have the time or energy to break them all down.

National Love
As the Tigers were getting swept, they were receiving lots of positive national attention. They were the front page story on ESPN.com and Justin Verlander reached the top of the Baseball America Hot Sheet.

Verlander named 6th starter

According to this report from the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Justin Verlander will start the back end of the double header on July 4th. Unfortunately the game isn’t slated to be televised in the Detroit market. (ESPN is picking up the first game).

As for the pros and cons of this move, check out the previous post and comments where we hash it all out.

The interesting thing is the Tigers have had a mentality making moves to win now. I’m not sure that Verlander gives them a better shot at winning than Wil Ledezma or Matt Ginter would. Was the decision to give Verlander the start based on the Tigers being swept by the White Sox? Is the selling about to commence? Is this the Tigers last week to prove something to Dave Dombrowski?

Verlander will be pitching on a couple of extra days rest, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The speculation has been the Tigers would shut him down at around 150 innings. That would imply that he only has 7-9 starts left this season anyways, so stretching those out will help prolong his season. Now not all innings are created equal. His innings dominating A ball probably require a little less effort than major league innings. As for how this will impact his total workload will be up to Bob Cluck.