Comments on: One Run Bummin

By: Patrick Droze

Patrick Droze — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000

Very nicely done. I’m a big fan of statistics and baseball so I found your interpretations interesting.

Nice blog by the way.

By: Jeff M

Jeff M — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000

Great analysis. Doesn’t make me feel any better, but informative nonetheless.

By: Walewander

Walewander — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000

Thanks, that was really interesting. One thing that might make us all better is Bill James’s contention that teams that win a lot of 1-run ballgames early (cough*Nationals*cough) are not likely to do much late. While the Tigers have lost a bunch of 1-run games, we have blown out a few teams, and are no doubt underperforming our pythag quite a bit. Hopefully, this should even out…

By: freemarcon

freemarcon — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000

Great post, as always. I was wondering if you got a chance to see Paul Wezner from Sunday. I figured probably not. I know your really busy right now. His article is right along the same lines as yours. Here's the link and keep up the great work billfer . . . http://tigers.scout.com/2/373507.html

By: Boston Fan in Michigan

Boston Fan in Michigan — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000

Makes sense. When you get a game down to one run, the things that happen to win or lose generally aren’t cumulative, team efforts… the one run game is where the freak, one-run homer or fielding error suddenly gain importance. You can talk about clutch or whatever, but it just comes down to small sample size, and, as you said, luck.

The trick is to have a season with a lot less one-run games than otherwise. That way you minimize the luck, I guess.

By: Chris Yarnes

Chris Yarnes — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000

p-values may help clarify the interpretation a bit as you have alot of data with gentle slopes. you might also try partial correlations….

By: Mike Cole

Mike Cole — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000

It may, as suggested, just come down to luck. But in these situations, it is the manager that takes the fall. I think if someone developed manager stats of more use/interest than W-L records, 1-run performance would certainly be included therein. And, like him or not, Mr. Trammel would not get a passing grade. Seen this mentioned not only in this terrific blog, but in several news accounts. Nice work!

By: F. James Mohl

F. James Mohl — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000

The fact that there is a correlation between One Run W Pct. and Non-One Run W Pct., however weak, suggests that there is further work to be done. For example, why not split the Non-One Run data into 2 parts: Two Runs and More than Two Runs. If you’re hypothesis is correct, there should be a moderate correlation (well above .29) between One Run W Pct. and Two Run W Pct. but very little correlation (much less than .29) between One Run and More Than Two Runs W Pct. In fact, the correlations should decline more or less steadily as the scoring differential increases. I’d suggest the following groupings: 1, 2, 3-4, 5-7, 8 or more.

Another test you could run is to compare 1 Run W Pct. to the % of all games decided by 1 Run. In other words, do teams who play a lot of 1 Run games do better or worse than average in those games? Presumably teams that have good pitching play a higher proportion of 1 Run games, and they may be better able to win close games. Team ERA or RA/G could also be used to identify such teams.

By: billfer

billfer — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000

Thanks for all your comments and suggestions. I do plan to delve into this further (hopefully soon) and hopefully I can address all (or at least most) of your questions.

By: Tim D

Tim D — Thu, 01 Jan 1970 00:00:00 +0000

The bullpen was still lousy. And it was great tonight and they won 3-2. I am a firm believer in statistical analysis, but I believe there are a great number of intangibles that affect the outcome of close games. Having the defense set right, the right guy coming in from the bullpen, missing a sign, hitting the cut-off man and a jillion other things have an effect on one run games. Luck is definitely a factor; look at Luis Gonzalez' blooper hit to win the World Series. But in the close games I have to defer to people like Sparky or LaRussa or Torre, etc. A feel for the game is critical and making the right move is, I firmly believe, reflected in the win column.

It is difficult to repeat year after year precisely because building a deep and effective bullpen and bench is damn near impossible.

Nice article Billfer. How about records in one run games vs. bullpen ERA and inherited runners scored?