Finishing Up the Centerfield Discussion…
Last week I took a look at the possible defensive impact in centerfield. Now it is time for the offensive impact. I used the projections from 3 different systems (PECTOA, ZiPS, and Bill James) to calculate “runs created.” I then adjusted the number to reflect a full season of 162 games. For the RC calculation I just used the shorthand of Total Bases times OBP. The James projections includes a RC calculation that is more robust than the TB*OBP mehtod. I included his numbers, as well as the shorthand for consistency (James are on the right).
PECOTA ZiPS Bill James
Monroe 94 89 101/99
Logan 61 55 58/62
Granderson 80 71 -
The gap between Logan and Monroe ranges from 33 to 43 runs. That seems like quite a bit for Logan to make up for defensively – even taking into account the resulting impact of sub par defense on the pitching staff. Even if you don’t trust the validity of any projection system, the gap is fairly consistent among the three.
Because Curtis Granderson is the heir apparent, I included his projections as well. Granderson grades out favorably. In fact, PECOTA has him in the top 5 centerfielders in projected Fielding Runs Above Average. I still think he needs seasoning, but it might not be long until he’s patrolling centerfield in Detroit.
I like the idea of trying Monroe in center. He did have a couple miscues yesterday in center, but he also seems verey coachable and eager to improve. A home/road platoon with Nook Logan isn’t a horrible idea either. If I were working for the Tigers and had piles of data at my disposal (and got paid for such endeavors), I’d look at the types of balls in play that each pitcher allows, as well as the tendencies of the teams I was playing against to make my recommendations. In any case, I’m just a humble blogger.