US Cellular .978

Jake .811

COPA .762

Kauffman .941

M-Dome .750

Good in Chi and KC, not much in the other three. Zero HR’s in 72 AB’s, .403 SLG in Detroit. Not too hot.

So, his power numbers will likely suffer at the CoPa.

Take a peek at Pudge’s page at BR, given that he played 12 years in a hitters paradise in Arlington. Last season, Pudge posted an OPS+ of 135, the second-highest total for his career.

Pudge’s raw OPS was driven by a career-high OBA and the second-highest BA of his career, but if a 32-year old catcher can slug .510 in Detroit then I like my chances with a more powerful 31-year old corner outfielder, at least in the short term.

I don’t mean to imply that Ordonez is a fraud by any means. The guy can flat out hit (evidenced by his 900ish OPS even on the road.

And I’d be lying if I said that purely as a fan I’m not excited it might happen. I am excited that he at least his making a counteroffer. But at the same time I’m also concerned about the terms. Then again I felt the same way last year about Pudge.

Detroit Tigers

Fun With Park Factors: After five years, it’s time to check in on how Comerica Park is shaping up as a run environment.

Year Hitting/Pitching

2000 97/97

2001 99/99

2002 93/94

2003 95/95

2004 96/97

100=neutral. Higher numbers favor offense, lower defense.

The Tigers moved the left-center field fence in from 395 to 370 feet after the 2002 season, cutting down on the enormous power alley that Juan Gonzalez complained about during his time with Detroit in 2000. Whether or not Comerica’s spacious outfield would have really driven away free-agent hitters is unknown, though Gonzalez’s public whining probably did plant some doubts in numbers-conscious sluggers. The Tigers appear to have gotten lucky–they moved the fence in, eliminating any talk that their park was too extreme, but that move has not seriously affected Comerica playing as a good pitchers’ park. Detroit needs to recognize this fact and ensure they have the appropriate speed in the outfield to capitalize on Comerica’s tendency to depress home runs (0.871 in 2004) and inflate triples (1.844, the highest factor for three-base hits of any park).

Out of the Frying Pan: There were a lot of reasons to believe Jeremy Bonderman was being set up for failure by the Detroit Tigers. He was drafted in the first round out of high school (by the Athletics, of all teams, before being traded to Detroit), a serious risk factor in the development of young pitchers. He spent just one season in A ball before breaking camp with the Tigers in 2003. He endured a brutal first major-league season with Detroit, losing 19 games for a Tigers team that dropped a franchise-record 119. Because of all that, it’s easy to forget that Bonderman is still just 22 years old, and to overlook the real strides he has made in his performance:

Year GS IP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 ERA

2003 28 162 10.7 3.2 6.0 5.56

2004 32 184 8.2 3.6 8.2 4.89

Like many young pitchers, Bonderman needs to cut down on his walk rate to take the next step. He has improved at the major-league level, though, and he appears ready to assume the mantle of staff ace. Fears that he has been overworked so early in his career seem unfounded. Despite the high total of innings he has racked up, manager Alan Trammell has kept him from having a single start above 121 pitches in his young career, and Bonderman has had a low stress rating in both of his first two years. Bonderman only got stronger down the stretch in 2004, as he had a 3.70 ERA and .211 batting average allowed after the All-Star break.

That Bonderman has largely overcome the hurdle doesn’t excuse the Tigers’ handling of their young ace. As pointed out in Baseball Prospectus 2004, Detroit’s decision to rush him to The Show will prove costly in the long-term, as Bonderman has now racked up two years of major-league service time and will hit free agency that much sooner. Clearly, having Bonderman as an “indentured servant” during his peak years instead of his developmental phase would have been better for Detroit. The Tigers are a team that can’t afford to shell out huge dollars to keep all of its homegrown talent, and so don’t have the luxury to make such a mistake.

Fifth with a Bullet: One wouldn’t expect the fifth slot in the Tigers rotation to generate much intrigue. However, this year’s back-end starter, Wilfredo Ledezma, has perhaps as much promise as any member of the pitching staff. Ledezma was a Rule 5 pick by the Tigers two years ago, nabbed from the Red Sox organization. He understandably struggled in 2003 after jumping from the South Atlantic League (A) to the majors, posting a 5.79 ERA in 84 innings for the Tigers, mostly out of the bullpen. Last season, Ledezma was able to head back to Double-A for much-needed seasoning, and he had a fine half-year in his age-23 season at hitter-friendly Erie, striking out 98 and walking just 24 in 111 2/3 innings.

Ledezma was recalled to Detroit on July 11, and pitched well enough for the Tigers (4.39 ERA, 29 K, 18 BB in 53 1/3 IP) to generate excitement about his future with the team. If Ledezma can build on the improvement he made last season, he could quickly team with Bonderman to provide a young, electric one-two punch at the top of the Detroit rotation.