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Sure the Tigers only scored 7 runs in their last 3 games, but when the White Sox only scored 3, the Tigers came away with the sweep. Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Cornejo followed up Wil Ledezma’s debut with excellent starts of their own. Bonderman was in control the whole game, and always seemed to make a big pitch when he most needed it. What was most impressive was his ability to not get rattled by 3 errors (actually it was 2 errors and a piss-poor call). Another former young Tiger pitcher would have come unglued.

Today I got to witness in person, Nate Cornejo pitching 8 innings of shut out ball, allowing 7 hits and 2 walks against 2 K’s. (as clarification, the post I made earlier about Cornejo did not include stats from this game) He was helped out by some nice defense (including his own) and 2 double plays. I also got to see Dmitri Young and Ramon Santiago look lost against Loaiza. Loaiza has made a lot of guys look foolish this year, but those two guys really seemed to struggle. But, in the end the Tigers beat Loaiza 1-0 for the second time this season.

Other Stuff: Danny Knobler reports that Bobby Higginson’s bad hamstring has half the strength of his healthy one. Bobby indicated he won’t return until he’s 100%.

Knobler also reported that Chris Mears is the closer-for now. Quoting Trammell, “Right now, he is going to be the guy (in the ninth),” Trammell said. “The fact of the matter is, we’re running a hot hand.”

The crowd today was reported as 18,206 but actual attendance was much less (no surprise). In all fairness the weather forecast called for thunderstorms which could have hurt walk-ups and induced no-shows. The number was probably boosted by a large number of groups in attendance. Those in attendance were really into the game and gave Nate Cornejo a standing ovation for his performance at the end of the 8th. It was great to see the enthusiasm for the team. Let’s hope the Tigers can build on this momentum against the BoSox.

Much has been written about Nate Cornejo’s “success” this season despite his unfathomably low strike out rate of 1.6 K/9 IP. Baseball Prospectus did a piece in early June (when Cornejo was really humming along with a sub 3.00 ERA). It showed that with runners on base, only 17% of balls in play resulted in hits. This was dramatic because the Tigers team was allowing hits on 27.1% of balls in play at the time. If you believe the theory that pitchers don’t really effect the outcome of balls that are hit in play, then you believe Nate was incredibly lucky.

Since the article was written on June 1, Cornejo has had two good outings, and a bunch of bad ones. Looking at the rate at which balls in play become hits, it has risen dramatically.

So what does this tell us? Basically that Nate was pretty lucky early in the season, and that he’s been pretty unlucky as of late. Considering that for the season, the Tigers have allowed hits on 27.9% of balls in play, it looks like for the season Cornejo has actually been a little bit unlucky. Based on the team rate, you would expect Cornejo to have allowed 100 hits on the season. That’s a difference of 10 hits over 17 games, or about .6 hits per game.

Because Cornejo’s K rate is so low, along with a low walk rate and average home run rate, 86.5% of the batters he faces put the ball in play. The league average is 72.5%. Why is this important? Because so few of his outs are strike outs, Cornejo is very reliant on his defense to help him out. When he’s “pitching unlucky” he’s really getting burned. In June and July when Nate was “pitching unlucky” he gave up 59 hits. With the same unlucky defensive efficiency, a pitcher who allows balls in play at the average rate would have allowed 48 hits. Over those 7 games that’s a 1.6 hit per game difference.

This also leads into a brief discussion of pitching efficiency. Bob Cluck’s argument in favor of Nate’s low strike rate is that Cornejo’s pitching is more efficient than a traditional player. While in theory, Cornejo maybe able to get a given batter out with fewer pitches by inducing players to put the ball in play, he’ll ultimately end up facing more batters as more reach base. Nate is averagig 3.53 pitches per plate appearance, and 15.4 pitches per inning. I don’t know league averages for these stats, but they don’t feel extremely efficient to me. And, it could be argued that any improvement over league averages could be attributable to Cornejo’s lower than average walk rate.

I’m not sure if this answered any questions, but it was definitely interesting to do. I’d like to give a little plug to Twins Geek who inspired this analysis with a couple of articles (this one, and this one) that he did a couple weeks ago. Plus, it’s a really great site.

Wil Ledezma had a solid debut pitching 5 shut out innings. He only allowed 4 hits and no walks to go along with 4 strike-outs. Ledezma threw 72 pitches, and 47 of them for strikes. I was thrilled with the performance, and happy that Trammell kept his pitch count fairly low. His previous high for pitches was a 4 inning 58 pitch relief outing. Ledezma left with a 1-0 lead which Chris Spuling let disappear the in the 7th.

Speaking of Chris Spurling, he is in a serious funk. This was his 5th straight appearance where he allowed runs to score. After an impressive May where his stats were 14 G, 13.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 9K, 2BB, .275 OPP BA, he has become highly ineffective. Since May his stats are 15 G, 17.2 IP, 7.02 ERA, 6K, 2BB, .400 OPP BA. He’s not really walking more guys, and I’m not sure why he’s getting hit so hard. Because he is a Rule 5 guy, the Tigers can’t send him to Toledo without risking losing him.

Deja Vu moment: When the Tigers played the White Sox on May 25th, Kevin Witt was due to come to the plate in the 8th with the bases loaded, nobody out, and facing a struggling left handed reliever (Kelly Wunsch). The same thing happened tonight, only the reliever was Marte instead of Wunsch. In both games Kevin Witt was 2 for 3. In both games Trammell pinch hit Craig Monroe for Kevin Witt, thus inviting Tom Gordon to enter the game. In both games Craig Monroe struck out. I complained about this last time, and I’ll do it again. If you’ve got a pitcher on the ropes, don’t give the other manager the opportunity to take him out, especially since the guy you’re pinch hitting for had been having a good game. Back in May Munson managed to drive in a run with a sac fly, and Torres singled in another one with a bloop single. Tonight Munson followed with another strike out and the inning end when Ross grounded out. Bases loaded, no outs and no runs to show for it. While the Tigers got the win, that is exactly the type of thing that will often come back to haunt you.

But, let’s not dwell on the negative and just enjoy the win.

Baseball America – Triple-A Notebook-Cody Ross

-Don’t look now, but the Dodger have only scored 7 more runs than the Tigers heading into Monday night’s game (289 to 282, both in 86 games). Now an American League team threatening to move out of last in the Majors in runs scored shouldn’t be news. However, Tiger fans have to grab at whatever bright spots they can find, and not being last in something is a definite step up.
-Cody Ross got the call last week when Bobby Higginson went on the 15 day DL. Both moves are probably overdue. Ross reached base after getting plunked in the heiny (tailbone-that’s gotta hurt), and then needed a pinch runner.
-Tiger trade speculation is starting to swirl. Mike Maroth and Jamie Walker appear to be the most likely candidates to be on the move. Maroth looks to have the most value being a solid left handed starter. Add in the fact he’s 25 and is making $300k and it is possible the Tigers could get a decent hitting prospect. Then again, as Tim D has commented on, the Tigers could have had a proven decent hitting 2nd basemen for even less and they passed (Jimenez). In all fairness to Dave D, it’s possible he did make a play and the White Sox may have not wanted to trade him to a division foe (I don’t know this happened, just giving the benefit of the doubt).
-With 3 errors this weekend at third base, Eric Munson is strengthening the “move him to catcher” argument. Unless the Tigers could somehow trade with Cincinnati and get Brandon Larson (doubtful) then you might as well keep Munson at third. Offensively he did have 3 walks and a homer on Sunday.
-Shane Halter started 6 of the last 9 games. My only question is, “Why?” Unless he’s catching, he isn’t an offensive upgrade at any position over the other options. Even in platoon situations, Halter’s OPS is only .691 against lefties. Munson has a .693 OPS which is a wash, but Munson maybe part of the future for the Tigers, and Halter definitely isn’t. At first base Pena has struggled against lefties (.551 OPS). However, the Tigers aren’t looking for Pena to be a platoon option, and this year would be a nice chance for him to get used to seeing southpaws. Warren Morris has also struggled against lefties with a .551 OPS, but 17 AB isn’t a large enough sample. Against left handed pitching he does have a 70 point OPS advantage of Santiago at short. So I guess that you could make the argument that Shane should get starts against lefties and play second or short. Unfortunately during this last stretch, only one of his starts fits that criteria (started for Morris against Hendrickson). Most of the starts came at the expense of Munson, and most were against righties. I guess I’ll hold out hope they were “showcasing” him for a potential trade.
-Time to read some more of Moneyball and head to bed

ESPN.com – Gammons: :

Danny Knobler:

Tanana says Bonderman will be better off for losing start to career

Catching up with the 62 Mets…and can the Tigers catch the 62 Mets?:

You knew it had to happen at some point. Trammell indicated that later in the season he may go with a 6 man rotation to protect his 3 rookies

Other stuff In the 6th inning Bonderman intentionally walked Michael Tucker it ended a string of 34 innings without a walk…Dmitri Young (9 games) and Carlos Pena (7games) saw their hit streaks end last night…Opponents have stolen 11 bases in 13 attempts against AJ Hinch.

Have a fun and safe holdiay weekend!

Jayson Stark’s Rumblings